USD/CHF - 1.0086
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/ATrend : Down
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.0073Kijun-Sen level : 1.0101Ichimoku cloud top : 1.0221Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.0159
Original strategy :
Buy at 1.0005, Target: 1.0165, Stop: 0.9945
New strategy :
Buy at 1.0005, Target: 1.0165, Stop: 0.9945
The greenback has remained sidelined as suggested in our previous update and further sideways trading above the fresh 2009 low of 1.0033 formed last Friday would continue and although recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0101) cannot be ruled out, as long as resistance at 1.0169 holds, recent decline should extend marginally towards chart support at 1.0011, however, as this move is losing downward momentum, suggesting sharp fall below there would not be repeated and reckon possible profit-taking would take place ahead of psychological support at 1.0000 and bring rebound later.
In view of the above analysis, we are venturing long on next decline. Above resistance at 1.0169 would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed and gain to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.0201) but break of 1.0230-39 (previous resistance and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) is needed to confirm.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6520
GBP/USD - 1.6373
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/ATrend : Sideways
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.6467Kijun-Sen level : 1.6472Ichimoku cloud top : 1.6263Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.6077
Original strategy :
Sell at 1.6470, Target: 1.6250, Stop: 1.6530
New strategy :
Sell at 1.6520, Target: 1.6315, Stop: 1.6585
As cable has rebounded after intra-day fall to 1.6251, suggesting the first leg of decline from 1.6694 has ended there and consolidation would take place with mild upside bias for recovery towards 1.6472-87 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and previous support turned resistance). However, as top has been formed at 1.6694, reckon renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6520/25 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 1.6694 to 1.6251) and bring another decline. Break of said support would extend weakness for a stronger correction of the rise from 1.5708 to 1.6201 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5708 to 1.6694) but reckon support at 1.6121(previous resistance turned support) would remain intact.
In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to sell on further rise. Above 1.6585 would risk stronger rebound to 1.6635/40 but said resistance at 1.6694 should put a lid on sterling for the time being.
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/ATrend : Sideways
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.6467Kijun-Sen level : 1.6472Ichimoku cloud top : 1.6263Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.6077
Original strategy :
Sell at 1.6470, Target: 1.6250, Stop: 1.6530
New strategy :
Sell at 1.6520, Target: 1.6315, Stop: 1.6585
As cable has rebounded after intra-day fall to 1.6251, suggesting the first leg of decline from 1.6694 has ended there and consolidation would take place with mild upside bias for recovery towards 1.6472-87 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and previous support turned resistance). However, as top has been formed at 1.6694, reckon renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6520/25 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 1.6694 to 1.6251) and bring another decline. Break of said support would extend weakness for a stronger correction of the rise from 1.5708 to 1.6201 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5708 to 1.6694) but reckon support at 1.6121(previous resistance turned support) would remain intact.
In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to sell on further rise. Above 1.6585 would risk stronger rebound to 1.6635/40 but said resistance at 1.6694 should put a lid on sterling for the time being.
Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 92.90
USD/JPY – 91.97
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 91.95Kijun-Sen level : 91.41Ichimoku cloud top : 90.44Ichimoku cloud bottom : 89.84
Original strategy
Buy at 91.60, Target: 92.85, Stop: 91.00
New Strategy
Sell at 92.90, Target: 91.55, Stop: 93.50
Although the greenback resumed recent rise from 88.01 low this morning and gain to 92.65 (50% projection of 90.07 to 92.23 measuring from 91.57) cannot be ruled out, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon selling interest would emerge around 92.90 (61.8% projection) and bring retreat later. Below 91.33-41 (previous resistance turned support and current level of the Kijun-Sen) would confirm a top has been formed, then further fall towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 90.44) would follow.
In view of the above analysis, we are turning short on next upmove for such a retreat. Above 93.50 would risk stronger correction of recent decline to 94.05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 88.01) before prospect of another strong pullback.
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 91.95Kijun-Sen level : 91.41Ichimoku cloud top : 90.44Ichimoku cloud bottom : 89.84
Original strategy
Buy at 91.60, Target: 92.85, Stop: 91.00
New Strategy
Sell at 92.90, Target: 91.55, Stop: 93.50
Although the greenback resumed recent rise from 88.01 low this morning and gain to 92.65 (50% projection of 90.07 to 92.23 measuring from 91.57) cannot be ruled out, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon selling interest would emerge around 92.90 (61.8% projection) and bring retreat later. Below 91.33-41 (previous resistance turned support and current level of the Kijun-Sen) would confirm a top has been formed, then further fall towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 90.44) would follow.
In view of the above analysis, we are turning short on next upmove for such a retreat. Above 93.50 would risk stronger correction of recent decline to 94.05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 88.01) before prospect of another strong pullback.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Exit Long Entered At 1.4890
EUR/USD - 1.4902
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Up
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.4954Kijun-Sen level : 1.4954Ichimoku cloud top : 1.4925Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.4834
Original strategy
Bought at 1.4890, Target: 1.5050, Stop: 1.4825
New strategy
Exit long entered at 1.4890
Despite rising marginally to another 2009 high of 1.5064 yesterday, the single currency tumbled from there in New York session on falling stocks and oil prices, suggesting a temporary top has been formed there and correction of recent upmove has taken place. Although euro found support above the Ichimoku cloud bottom and recovered from 1.4845, reckon upside would be limited to the convergence of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now both at 1.4954) and bring another decline later. Below 1.4834-45 (current level of the lower Kumo and previous support and also approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4480 to 1.5064 at 1.4841) would extend weakness to 1.4772 (50% Fibonacci retracement) later.
In view of this, we are exiting our long position entered at 1.4890 with small profit and stand aside in the meantime. Only above 1.4980 (previous support) would bring another bounce to 1.5000 and possibly retest of 1.5064 which is expected to remain intact.
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Up
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.4954Kijun-Sen level : 1.4954Ichimoku cloud top : 1.4925Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.4834
Original strategy
Bought at 1.4890, Target: 1.5050, Stop: 1.4825
New strategy
Exit long entered at 1.4890
Despite rising marginally to another 2009 high of 1.5064 yesterday, the single currency tumbled from there in New York session on falling stocks and oil prices, suggesting a temporary top has been formed there and correction of recent upmove has taken place. Although euro found support above the Ichimoku cloud bottom and recovered from 1.4845, reckon upside would be limited to the convergence of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now both at 1.4954) and bring another decline later. Below 1.4834-45 (current level of the lower Kumo and previous support and also approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4480 to 1.5064 at 1.4841) would extend weakness to 1.4772 (50% Fibonacci retracement) later.
In view of this, we are exiting our long position entered at 1.4890 with small profit and stand aside in the meantime. Only above 1.4980 (previous support) would bring another bounce to 1.5000 and possibly retest of 1.5064 which is expected to remain intact.
Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6520
GBP/USD - 1.6359
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Sideways
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.6323Kijun-Sen level : 1.6472Ichimoku cloud top : 1.6327Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.6098
Original strategy
Sell at 1.6520, Target: 1.6315, Stop: 1.6585
New strategy
Sell at 1.6520, Target: 1.6315, Stop: 1.6585
As cable continued to find good support above yesterday's low at 1.6251, suggesting further consolidation would take place and recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6472) cannot be ruled out, however, as top has been formed at 1.6694, reckon renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6520/25 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 1.6694 to 1.6251) and bring another decline. Break of said support would extend weakness for a stronger correction of the rise from 1.5708 to 1.6201 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5708 to 1.6694) but reckon support at 1.6121(previous resistance turned support) would remain intact.
In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to sell on further rise. Above 1.6585 would risk stronger rebound to 1.6635/40 but said resistance at 1.6694 should put a lid on sterling for the time being.
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Sideways
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.6323Kijun-Sen level : 1.6472Ichimoku cloud top : 1.6327Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.6098
Original strategy
Sell at 1.6520, Target: 1.6315, Stop: 1.6585
New strategy
Sell at 1.6520, Target: 1.6315, Stop: 1.6585
As cable continued to find good support above yesterday's low at 1.6251, suggesting further consolidation would take place and recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6472) cannot be ruled out, however, as top has been formed at 1.6694, reckon renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6520/25 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 1.6694 to 1.6251) and bring another decline. Break of said support would extend weakness for a stronger correction of the rise from 1.5708 to 1.6201 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5708 to 1.6694) but reckon support at 1.6121(previous resistance turned support) would remain intact.
In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to sell on further rise. Above 1.6585 would risk stronger rebound to 1.6635/40 but said resistance at 1.6694 should put a lid on sterling for the time being.
Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0070
USD/CHF - 1.0154
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Down
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.0127Kijun-Sen level : 1.0117Ichimoku cloud top : 1.0218Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.0141
Original strategy
Buy at 1.0005, Target: 1.0165, Stop: 0.9945
New strategy
Buy at 1.0070, Target: 1.0220, Stop: 1.0005
Yesterday's stronger rebound on falling oil and stock prices suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed at 1.0033 earlier and consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of resistance at 1.0230 is needed to confirm this view and bring retracement of recent decline to 1.0275/80, however, reckon 1.0358-60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0885 to 1.0033 and previous resistance level) would hold from here.
In view of the above analysis, we are looking to buy euro on retreat. Only below 1.0011 chart support would extend recent decline towards 0.9980 but reckon 0.9924 (61.8% projection of 1.1026 to 1.0170 measuring from 1.0453) would hold from here.
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Down
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.0127Kijun-Sen level : 1.0117Ichimoku cloud top : 1.0218Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.0141
Original strategy
Buy at 1.0005, Target: 1.0165, Stop: 0.9945
New strategy
Buy at 1.0070, Target: 1.0220, Stop: 1.0005
Yesterday's stronger rebound on falling oil and stock prices suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed at 1.0033 earlier and consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of resistance at 1.0230 is needed to confirm this view and bring retracement of recent decline to 1.0275/80, however, reckon 1.0358-60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0885 to 1.0033 and previous resistance level) would hold from here.
In view of the above analysis, we are looking to buy euro on retreat. Only below 1.0011 chart support would extend recent decline towards 0.9980 but reckon 0.9924 (61.8% projection of 1.1026 to 1.0170 measuring from 1.0453) would hold from here.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's rally, the 87% retracement level of he 2008-2009-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
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