Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 92.90

USD/JPY – 91.97
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 91.95Kijun-Sen level : 91.41Ichimoku cloud top : 90.44Ichimoku cloud bottom : 89.84
Original strategy
Buy at 91.60, Target: 92.85, Stop: 91.00
New Strategy
Sell at 92.90, Target: 91.55, Stop: 93.50
Although the greenback resumed recent rise from 88.01 low this morning and gain to 92.65 (50% projection of 90.07 to 92.23 measuring from 91.57) cannot be ruled out, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon selling interest would emerge around 92.90 (61.8% projection) and bring retreat later. Below 91.33-41 (previous resistance turned support and current level of the Kijun-Sen) would confirm a top has been formed, then further fall towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 90.44) would follow.
In view of the above analysis, we are turning short on next upmove for such a retreat. Above 93.50 would risk stronger correction of recent decline to 94.05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 88.01) before prospect of another strong pullback.

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